# China Silver Export Restrictions 2026 Starting January 1, 2026, China implemented export licensing requirements for silver. This weaponizes their control of global refining and creates a structural supply shock. ## What Changed Before January 1: Any Chinese company could export freely, fast turnaround (2-5 days), transparent pricing. After January 1: Government export license required for EACH shipment. Only 44 companies approved. Requirements: proof of annual exports from 2022-2024, minimum 80 tonnes production. Standard approval: 45 days (usually longer). First approvals: February 2026 at earliest. ## Why This Is Critical China controls [[Silver Refining Chokepoint|60-70% of world's refined silver supply]] despite producing only 13% of global mine supply. They built this position over 20 years by importing doré bars from South America, Australia, Africa, then refining to .999/.9999 fine for re-export. The [[Silver Value Chain]] flowed through China. Now that chokepoint is restricted. ## The Rare Earth Playbook China did this before with rare earth elements: Built dominant refining position, let Western capacity atrophy, implemented export restrictions, prices spiked 5-10x, Western countries scrambled to rebuild (took 8-12 years). Silver is following the same pattern. ## Impact Timeline January 2026: Export freeze, some inventory still in transit, market assumes "temporary." February 2026: First export approvals issued (maybe), 45-day processing time, Western manufacturers discover reality. March-April 2026: "Temporary" becomes obviously permanent, scramble for non-Chinese sources, [[Silver Lease Rates]] spike further, industrial users panic-buy forwards. Q2-Q3 2026: Physical delivery failures begin, some manufacturers shut production, [[Silver Swap Rates and Forward Curve|swap rates]] worsen to -15% or worse, price forced higher. ## Who Gets Licenses Only 44 companies approved, requiring proof of exports from 2022-2024 (small/new exporters shut out), minimum 80 tonnes annual production, government discretion on each shipment. This is not random bureaucracy. It's strategic control. Companies needing silver must place fewer but much larger orders to build buffer between approvals. This creates lumpy, unreliable supply. ## Why This Supports $100+ Silver With 60-70% of refining restricted: Available supply 250-335M oz from Western refiners (already at capacity). Annual demand: 1,240M oz. Deficit: 905-990M oz that cannot be refined. Price must go to $100-150 to destroy 200-300M oz marginal demand, incentivize maximum recycling, force substitution, buy time to rebuild refining. This is not speculation. This is mathematics. Links: [[Silver MOC]] | [[Silver Refining Chokepoint]] | [[China Resource Weaponization]] --- #china #silver #geopolitics #systems