Climate risk refers to the potential for loss, damage, or harm created or exacerbated by climate change. It arises from a complex interplay of various factors, including the [[probability]] of hazardous events and the potential damage these events can cause. The dynamics of climate risk are deeply influenced by human systems and actions, creating a multifaceted and evolving challenge.
#### Understanding Climate Risk
- **Definition**: Climate risk is the risk that arises from the impact of climate change, encompassing various elements from environmental changes to socioeconomic factors.
- **Components of Risk**:
- **Hazard**: Events like droughts, floods, and heatwaves.
- **Exposure**: The presence of people or assets in areas affected by these hazards.
- **Vulnerability**: The susceptibility of the exposed elements to damage.
- **Response**: Human actions that can either mitigate or exacerbate the impacts.
> Risk = Probability of hazard x Damage from event
Things we don't think of as risk:
- good or neutral outcomes
- deterministic outcomes
#### Dynamics of Climate Risk
- **Interactions**: Climate risks are not isolated; they interact strongly with broader socioeconomic dynamics, leading to complex and often unpredictable outcomes.
- **Diverse Impacts**: From sea-level rises to temperature changes, the impacts are varied and widespread, affecting different regions and systems in unique ways.
- **Worsening Trends**: Evidence suggests that climate risks are intensifying, posing greater threats to ecosystems, economies, and societies.
**Questions motivating our understanding of climate risk:**
- what are the potential impacts of climate change?
- what can we say about their uncertainties?
- what are the impacts of those uncertainties on the performance of risks management strategies?
### **Climate Risk Management Strategies**
1. **Mitigation**: Reducing emissions and impacts.
2. **Adaptation**: Adjusting lifestyles and infrastructures to new climate realities.
3. **Solar Radiation Management**: Reflecting sunlight to cool the Earth.
4. **Carbon Sequestration**: Capturing and storing atmospheric CO2.
Note: Each strategy is subject to **uncertainties**.
![[Pasted image 20231230182802.png]]
### Uncertainties in Climate Risk
Climate risk is fraught with uncertainties, from the behavior of natural systems to human responses and socioeconomic trends.
Uncertainties enter into the hazard-exposure-vulnerability-response model in a few ways:
- uncertain hazards
- uncertainty in model estimates of hazards of exposure or vulnerability
- uncertainty in responses
Uncertainty reflects:
- an inability to exactly describe a current or future state
- multiple possibilities of how the future might unfold
Climate risk relevant uncertainties:
1. Geophysical:
1. Ocean Heat Diffusivity
2. Climate Sensitivity
3. Aerosol Scaling
4. Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensities
2. Socio-economic:
1. Economic Growth
2. Population Change
3. Technological Change
**Handling Uncertainties**: Recognizing and categorizing uncertainties is crucial, from those with broadly agreed probabilities to deep uncertainties with no consensus.
Categories of relevant uncertainties:
1. Broadly agree on probability distribution (e.g. climate sensitivity)
2. No consensus distribution (e.g. future economic growth)
- Known Knowns - Certainty
- Unknown Knowns - Shallow Uncertainty
- Unknown Unknowns - Deep Uncertainty
E.g. Shallow Uncertainty
![[Pasted image 20231230183435.png]]
Shallow uncertainties are not all easy to handle, geophysical uncertainties are highly correlated.
![[Pasted image 20231230183513.png]]
![[Pasted image 20231230183641.png]]
Deep Uncertainties:
![[Pasted image 20231230183746.png]]
> People have an aversion to deep uncertainty
#### Challenges and Motivations
- **Characterizing Uncertainties**: Understanding the nature and implications of various uncertainties is a significant challenge.
- **Impact on Strategies**: Assessing how these uncertainties affect the performance and viability of different risk management strategies is vital for effective planning and action.
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Links: [[Quantum x Climate Modelling]] | [[Qubits for Climate MOC]] | [[Value at Risk (VAR)]] | [[Risk Parity]] | [[Risk Parity Allocation & Performance]] | [[Climate related Scenario Analysis]] | [[Climate Modelling MoC]]