How to build a concentrated advanced packaging portfolio using [[Bill Ackman]] style conviction.
**Core principle:** Own one or two names max. Concentration forces you to really understand the business. No hedging with marginal bets.
**Primary position: [[Amkor - AMKR]]**
This is the "show up and get paid" business. Real cash flows, direct exposure to [[Packaging Capacity Bottleneck]], customer-backed capacity expansion. If you can only own one packaging name, this is it.
**Optional second: [[ASE Technology - ASX]]**
Scale leader with similar characteristics. Only add if you want redundancy, not if you're seeking different exposure. Owning both is like owning two railroads on the same route.
**What to avoid:**
- [[Kulicke & Soffa - KLIC]]: Too cyclical for concentration. Earnings volatility violates the durable cash flow requirement.
- [[BESI - Hybrid Bonding Leader]]: Great tech, but optionality-driven. Not value-first.
- Intel: Too many moving parts. Packaging alone doesn't determine outcome.
**Ackman-style question:** "What has to be true for this to permanently impair my capital?"
For AMKR, the answer is observable: structural demand collapse, customer vertical integration at scale, or permanent pricing power loss. None are happening quietly.
**Position sizing:** If truly concentrated, 45-55% in AMKR. If adding ASX, split 50/50 or tilt 60/40 toward your highest conviction name.
This approach only works if you have deep conviction and can stomach volatility without selling.
Links: [[Advanced Packaging MOC]], [[OSAT Value Investing Framework]], [[Bill Ackman]], [[Investing Principles]]
---
#investing #kp