> Conviction is the ultimate combination of heart and mind. I find it fascinating. When working on trying to understand the opportunity for [[Ventures]], [[Ordering Chaos]] and making informed bets, I: - Get overall alignment on the "thesis" for understanding the wider context, [[General Market Direction]] and [[Linchpins]] essential - Clarify the potential business model, product and market - Spend time with the potential team, to understand how they think, how they are likely to build and lead, and why they might be advantaged. But, then, ultimately, beyond all these metrics and the structured spreadsheets, you get to this somewhat stark moment of **conviction** – *a decision without certainty but with some level of instinct and belief.* The work you’ve done is a big input, but then, I find there’s something else, too. It’s some combination of understanding, excitement, experience, gut, and fear. And this process repeats throughout our lives in every decision – our personal lives, our views on the broader world. I increasingly believe the weighting of those inputs is the important factor. - Rely too much on experience and you close yourself off to the new that doesn’t pattern match the old. - Rely too much on understanding and you lose a risk tolerance that brings big upside, whether investing or otherwise. - Rely too much on gut and you’re shooting in the dark. So somehow, we navigate the balance, hopefully better and better, and that’s our process of improving. --- Related: [[Predicting Tech Progress]]