# My Silver Investment Thesis 2026 Silver is heading to $100-150 in 2026 driven by a perfect storm: [[China Silver Export Restrictions 2026]], fifth consecutive year of [[Silver Structural Supply Deficit]], and extreme [[Silver Lease Rates|physical market stress]]. ## The Setup Three critical indicators confirm the shortage is real: - [[Silver Lease Rates]]: 8.5% (normal is 0%) - [[Silver Swap Rates and Forward Curve]]: -7.9% (should be positive) - [[Shanghai Silver Premium]]: 12% peak (normal is 0%) All three above their 100-day moving averages and rising. ## Why It's Different This Time [[China Silver Export Restrictions 2026|China controls 60-70% of global refining]] despite producing only 13% of mine supply. Starting January 1, 2026, only 44 companies can export with 45+ day approval times. Unlike 2011's speculative rally, this is structural. [[Byproduct Silver Problem|71% of silver is byproduct]] from copper, zinc, lead mines. Even at $200/oz, supply cannot respond unless base metals justify it. ## Current Position - 1.5x effective leverage via 3x ETF - $3SIL - Miners (Vizsla, AbraSilver) ## Strategy DO NOT add at current $72-74. Wait for correction: - $65-68: Add £750-1,000 (60% miners, 40% physical) - $60-62: Add £1,500-2,000 aggressively - $50-55: Bet the farm Physical indicators suggest fair value is $100-130. Paper markets can correct 10-20% short-term before repricing to [[Silver Price Discovery - Paper vs Physical|physical reality]]. ## Price Targets - Conservative: $65 (Bank of America) - Moderate: $85-100 (Goldman Sachs) - Aggressive: $110 (Citi) - Physical stress implies: $100-150 to balance market February-March 2026 is critical. As China export approvals lag, [[Silver Lease Rates|lease rates could hit 10%+]] and trigger panic buying. ## Risk Management - If silver breaks $80, sell 25% of 3x position - At $100, sell 50% of 3x leverage - Hold miners to $125+ - Hard stop at -30% on 3x ETF (thesis broken) Links: [[Silver MOC]] --- #investing #kp #silver #thesis