How to underwrite [[OSATs - Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test]] as value investments. **Start with normalized earnings.** OSATs swing with the cycle. Look at mid-cycle margins and free cash flow, not peak or trough. Avoid paying peak multiples. **Balance sheet first.** Net leverage must stay manageable. Capex is heavy, and downturns can turn cash flow negative. Companies with strong balance sheets survive to benefit from the next upcycle. **Utilization is the tell.** If advanced packaging utilization stays high even when consumer electronics weaken, that signals structural demand. Watch quarterly commentary on fab loading. **Customer concentration risk.** One or two hyperscalers or chip companies can dominate revenue. If you lose a key program, the equity gets crushed. Diversification across customers and end markets provides downside protection. **Capex discipline matters.** OSATs that add capacity without committed customer demand destroy value. Look for multi-year contracts or joint development agreements backing new investments. **Where margin of safety exists:** Buy when the market prices OSATs like cyclical industrials during a downturn, while advanced packaging mix keeps rising and demand fundamentals stay intact. Apply this to [[Amkor - AMKR]] and [[ASE Technology - ASX]]. Avoid when PE ratios stretch above historical ranges without clear earnings growth visibility. Links: [[Advanced Packaging MOC]], [[Concentrated Packaging Portfolio]], [[Bill Ackman]], [[Investing Principles]] --- #investing #semiconductors #kp