Something unusual happening with [[Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac]]
Normally, when a stock goes up, it gets riskier to buy because you're paying more and the upside is smaller.
But with Fannie and Freddie (and back in the day, General Growth Properties in 2009), it's the opposite.
Here is why:
They’ve been under government control (conservatorship), and one of the biggest risks to their shareholders is **dilution** - the company issuing more shares and watering down existing ones.
But as their stock prices go up, they don’t need to issue as many new shares (or maybe none at all). That **lowers the dilution risk**, which makes the stock more attractive… so more people buy in… which pushes the price higher… which reduces the risk even more.
It’s a rare but powerful cycle - kind of like a positive feedback loop.
The more the price rises, the **less risky** it becomes. This is wild.
This is called **positive reflexivity** and it’s one of those rare times in markets when “up” doesn’t mean “more dangerous,” it actually means “safer.”