Progress doesn’t just happen randomly. There are forces—strong ones—that push us in certain directions whether we realize it or not. They don’t rely on who’s leading or what product is in the spotlight. These forces show up over and over again, across time, geography, and industry. They're patterns. They point us forward. #### **What I'm thinking about.** 1. **The pattern is predictable.** Human history keeps repeating a core cycle: we find better ways to extract energy, we build tools to extend our abilities, and we keep stacking knowledge. This arc—from burning wood, to coal, to uranium—shows how each phase builds on the last. It’s not random progress. It’s directional. 2. **We’re hitting convergence.** Progress today is less about new ideas in isolated fields and more about bringing them together. We’re getting cheaper computing, higher energy density, and brain-computer interfaces that don’t need keyboards. We can launch payloads into space for less, and autonomous defense systems are faster and cheaper to build. These aren’t just wins in silos—they’re signs that progress is aligning. 3. **This matters because the pace compounds.** When breakthroughs across different sectors line up, things move fast. Think Moore’s Law meeting reusable rockets meeting AI training runs. They don’t just improve alone—they accelerate each other. That’s a powerful direction to be in. ### **So what?** If you’re building something—or deciding where to spend your time—you want to be standing where the arrows already point. Don’t chase hype. Look for the boring but reliable shifts: falling costs, better performance, deeper integration between man and machine. That’s where progress stacks, and that’s where impact multiplies. ---