The surge of capital spending (capex) on AI infrastructure is massive, already absorbing about **5% of U.S. GDP**. That puts it on par with the fiber-optic and router buildout of the early 2000s (5.2%) and just below the housing-driven construction boom of 2005 (6.7%). Today’s capital is being funneled into **self-improving, power-intensive systems**—AI models that learn, iterate, and compound knowledge, even as their hardware depreciates. Past cycles suggest that investors often overspend in periods of technological euphoria. With AI, the likeliest outcome is similar: much of the direct investment may be overbuilt, while the **real value will accrue to more prudent players**—those who harness the infrastructure and capture derivative benefits rather than chasing the boom itself.