At the start of every new year, I like to personally think about what's ahead. Why? As most things that can happen will happen, and failures come from a failure to predict failure (See: [[Lux Capital Principles]] x [[Josh Wolfe]]. I have done this before too, and it's useful: [[10 Themes for 2023]]. In 2024, public markets surged, [[Artificial Intelligence]] was everywhere, Quantum Tech made rapid advances, the world order changes escalated, the geo-political landscape got even more complex and the world finds itself in a liminal grey area across the board. ## [[#1. More AI: Autonomous, Invisible and SaaS killer ]] AI is rapidly transitioning from a supportive role to an active and indispensable force in our personal and professional lives. The landscape in 2025 will be defined by its autonomy, invisibility, and centrality in organizational frameworks. See: [A deep dive into AI](https://medium.com/datadriveninvestor/a-deep-dive-into-artificial-intelligence-52aa2507747e?source=user_profile---------16----------------------------) #### [[#1. 1: Autonomous Agents Go Prime Time]] [[AI agents]] are moving beyond assistance to independent action. These agents will manage workflows, solve intricate problems, and create new efficiencies. From negotiating contracts to optimizing supply chains and generating creative iterations, these systems will redefine productivity and decision-making. The era of **autonomous intelligence** marks a paradigm shift in how tasks are handled and goals are achieved. See: [[Autonomous AI Agents - The rise, potential and challenges]] x [[Autonomous Agents]] #### [[#1.2: Ambient AI Becomes Invisible ]] AI is seamlessly embedding itself into everyday life, becoming so intuitive that its **presence feels invisible**. This evolution powers real-time language translation, health-enhancing nudges, and highly personalized experiences, all without demanding active engagement. The rise of **ambient intelligence** signals a move toward technology that anticipates and fulfills needs effortlessly. See: [[AI Agents Landscape - Snapshot of progress and potential]] #### [[#1.3: AI-Centric Organizations Take Over ]] Organizations that are inherently AI-first, with data as their core and humans as strategic orchestrators, are poised to outpace legacy businesses. These "cognicos" position AI as the backbone of their decision-making and operational strategies. This shift heralds a new age of enterprise intelligence, where AI doesn’t just support but fundamentally drives outcomes. See: [[Decentralized Autonomous Organizations]] x [[Case for DAOs and Crypto Communities]] #### [[#1.4: Memory-Driven AI Sparks a SaaS Showdown ]] AI agents with deep memory and the ability to act as a “system of record” will clash with SaaS incumbents. Expect a battle for customer stickiness as startups disrupt traditional tools, forcing SaaS players to double down on agent capabilities. #### [[#1.5: Outcome-Based Payment Models Change Software Commercial Models]] Why sell subscriptions when you can sell _results_? AI companies will tap into **labor budgets**, shifting the focus from product features to delivered outcomes— reshaping enterprise software monetization. ### [[#2. Less AI: The Rise of Authenticity and Curated Digital Ecosystems]] As the proliferation of AI-generated content accelerates, a counterculture focused on authenticity and curation is gaining momentum. In a world awash with generative output, the value of _trusted voices_ - individuals and platforms that skillfully blend human insight with AI amplification - will soar. > Trust becomes the ultimate currency, reshaping how we consume and value information. This shift also fuels the emergence of **hyper-curated private internets**—decentralized ecosystems designed to combat the flood of infinite content. These exclusive digital spaces prioritize human validation, trust, and high-quality interaction, maintaining a near-zero ratio of human-to-AI-generated content. Together, these trends mark a retreat from mass AI-driven abundance to intentional and authentic digital experiences. See: x [[Cryptonetworks]] ### [[#3. Modular Data Centers and Energy Infrastructure Battefield]] As global demand for computing power surges, the intersection of data infrastructure and energy innovation is becoming a critical arena for transformation. Modular data centers which are compact, scalable, and sustainable are emerging as the cornerstone of this evolution. Designed for flexibility and efficiency, these centers redefine the deployment of compute power by enabling edge computing, lowering latency, and minimizing energy waste. They mark a shift toward agile infrastructure that meets the needs of an increasingly digital and interconnected world. See: [[Modular Data Center Design Principles]] and [[Data Center MoC]] Simultaneously, the energy infrastructure supporting these advancements is facing unparalleled pressure. With CAPEX investments in cooling systems, power generation, and network expansion soaring, competition between renewable energy, nuclear power, and experimental technologies like fusion is intensifying. Sustainability is no longer a choice—it’s a battlefield where technological innovation and environmental necessity collide. These developments will determine whether the industry can meet soaring energy demands without compromising the planet’s future. See: [Data Center Wars](https://medium.com/@karanmjpinto/the-ai-data-center-wars-the-billion-dollar-race-no-ones-talking-about-yet-e790d94546c7) ### [[#4. Quantum Tech continues rapid advancements]] 2024 proved quantum computing isn’t a pipe dream, with hardware vendors delivering on set roadmaps. 2025 will be the year where Quantum Error Correction and early breakthrough applications will take center stage. See: [[Quantum Error Correction 101]] x [[Qubits for Climate MOC]] Quantum Security and Sensing will see accelerated commercialisation with transitions to Post Quantum Cryptography and the development of Quantum Secure Networks continuing. See: [[Quantum Tech MOC]] x [[PQC - The Future of Cybersecurity]] x [[Quantum Security MOC]] x [[Quantum Security Thesis]] ### [[#5. Strategic Reserves and the DeFi Revolution: Bitcoin and Stablecoins Take Center Stage]] As the financial landscape evolves, Bitcoin is emerging as a **strategic reserve asset** for corporations, governments, and institutions, akin to digital gold. Its role as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical instability is driving adoption, solidifying its place in balance sheets worldwide. This shift signals a broader acceptance of decentralized assets as foundational elements in financial strategy. See; [[MicroStrategy Bitcoin Strategy - A Gamechanger or Risky Bet]] Simultaneously, the mainstreaming of stablecoin-powered applications is revolutionizing decentralized finance (DeFi). These applications are unlocking seamless payments, high-yield savings, and innovative lending mechanisms, offering consumers and businesses unprecedented financial tools. With regulatory clarity accelerating adoption, stablecoins are bridging the gap between traditional finance and the decentralized future, paving the way for DeFi's integration into everyday life. Together, Bitcoin’s adoption as a reserve and the proliferation of [[Stable Coins]] - driven DeFi are setting the stage for a new financial paradigm. See: [[DeFi MOC]] #### [[#6. The Biotech Revolution: AI, Blockbuster Drugs, and Emerging Markets]] I'm really excited about the [[Digitalisation of Biology]] and how it transforms with Deep Tech maturing. See: [[TechBio MoC]]. Specifically 3 things, I'm tracking closely. #### 6.1 Blockbuster [[GLP-1 Drugs]] expanding Horizons GLP-1s, already a $50 billion category, are poised to redefine chronic disease treatment. Beyond their success in weight loss and diabetes management, enhanced variants in trials promise breakthroughs in conditions such as sleep apnea and chronic heart failure. These drugs are cementing their status as the decade’s pharmaceutical superstars. See: [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/06/22/emerging-investment-opportunities-in-diabetes-treatment/) #### 6.2 Software-Powered Drug Discovery: A Golden Age Software is revolutionizing drug discovery, cutting costs, accelerating timelines, and tackling previously intractable diseases. With over 60 AI-discovered molecules currently in trials, 2025 will mark a turning point as algorithms augment human intuition to redefine medicine. This computational approach is unlocking treatments for rare diseases and reshaping the future of biotech. See: [[Enhancing Drug Discovery Efficiency]] x [Software Drugs](https://x.com/karanmariojude/status/1873440140653453346) #### 6.3 Hemp-Based THC Fuels Cannabis Innovation Hemp-derived cannabinoids, such as Delta-8 THC, are reshaping the cannabis market, achieving $2.8 billion in sales in 2023 alone. As consumer adoption accelerates, this segment is expected to grow exponentially, offering a diverse range of applications and products that redefine the cannabis landscape. --- #### [[#7. Compounding Growth Through Culture and Stability]] In my role as an operator looking to drive growth of a deep tech company and as an avid investor, I’m always on the look our for ways to build a thriving and sustainable disruptive business. In a volatile world, I’ve learnt that the **_most enduring businesses_** focus on what’s stable over time — principles, people, and purpose. Companies like [[Constellation Software]] and **Palantir** exemplify this approach, blending long-term vision with operational excellence. ##### The Formula for Enduring Success 1. **Decentralized Autonomy with Accountability**: Empower small, agile teams to make decisions while holding them accountable for results. This minimizes bureaucracy and maximizes innovation. 2. **Iterative Experimentation**: Treat growth as a scientific process — test small, refine constantly, and learn quickly. 3. **Ownership and Culture**: Align employee incentives with long-term goals to foster commitment and build resilient organizations. Both CSI and Palantir demonstrate that leadership grounded in philosophy and shared values creates businesses that don’t just survive — they compound. > Growth isn’t about chasing trends; it’s about scaling principles that stand the test of time. [[Operating Principles]] | [[Operating Principles for Growth - Mark Leonard & Constellation Software]] | [[The Deep Tech Growth Cycle is different]] | [[Venture Building Manifesto]]