# USLM Open Questions Claims to check and numbers that changed after the thesis. Each row names the decision it moves. ## Claims that need verification | Claim (source thesis) | Doubt | Decision it moves | |---|---|---| | Lhoist, Graymont and Carmeuse have no meaningful presence in core Texas. | Lhoist North America has its head office in Fort Worth and, to my knowledge, a lime plant at Clifton, TX, ~70 miles from Cleburne. Austin White Lime also operates in central Texas. Check plant lists and distances. | The whole "local monopoly" label. If a rival plant is inside the truck radius, this is a duopoly. | | Cleburne kilns run on grandfathered permits. | Not checked against TCEQ records. | How safe the existing capacity is from new rules. | | No new DFW lime kiln in decades. | Author's research. No source given. | Entry barrier strength. | | Texas Lime is >70% of gross profit. | Estimate. USLM reports no plant-level profit. | Size of [[Texas Lime Concentration Risk]]. | | Waha gas gives a cost edge. | Size not public. | Margin durability. | ## Numbers that moved | Item | At thesis (May 2026) | Later | Source | |---|---|---|---| | Kiln start | Summer 2026 | Intermittent in Q3. Commissioning Q4 2026. | Q3 10-Q^[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000082020/000110465926120712/uslm-20260930x10q.htm] | | Cash | $383M (Q1) | ~$403M (Q2) | ^[https://www.panabee.com/news/united-states-lime-minerals-earnings-q2-2026-report] | | Gross margin | 48.9% (2025) | 47.1% (Q2), 47.8% (Q3) | Filings | | Price growth | 21.1% (2023) | 2.5% (Q3 2026) | Q3 10-Q | ## Gaps the thesis does not cover - **Carbon.** Calcining releases CO2 from the rock. A US carbon price or EPA rule would raise cost. Can USLM pass it on inside its radius? - **Substitutes.** Cement and fly ash also stabilise soil. At what lime price does TxDOT allow a switch? - **Freight.** Q3 2026 profit fell on diesel. USLM runs its own trucks. Can it pass diesel through? - **Scenarios.** The pasted article stops before the valuation scenarios. Get the full text for the author's numbers. ---- tags: #boat #investing links: [[United States Lime and Minerals MOC]] [[USLM Investment Thesis]] [[USLM Valuation]]