# USLM Valuation At $105 the stock traded at ~14.5x EV/EBITDA. That is a quality multiple, not a commodity one. The question is whether 2025 margins are the base or the peak. ## The numbers at $105 | Item | Value | Note | |---|---|---| | Diluted shares | 28.75M | Q1 2026 | | Market cap | ~$3.0B | 105 × 28.75M | | Cash | $383M (~$13.3/share) | Q1 2026. No debt. | | EV/EBITDA | ~14.5x | Source figure | | Implied TTM EBITDA | ~$180M | My back-solve. Verify. | - The stock fell 17% on 30 April 2026 (Q1 results). It was ~$111 by 28 May.^[Colubeat Investment Desk, 28 May 2026, https://colubeatid.substack.com/p/united-states-lime-and-minerals-inc] - The pasted copy cuts off before the scenarios. The author's base, bull and bear values are not in this note. ## Margin path | Period | Revenue | Gross profit | Gross margin | |---|---|---|---| | 2022 | — | — | 29.8% | | 2025 | $372.7M | $182.4M | 48.9% | | Q2 2026 | $99.1M | $46.7M | 47.1% | | Q3 2026 | $106.2M | $50.8M | 47.8% | - Q2 and Q3 2026 come from filings.^[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000082020/000110465926120712/uslm-20260930x10q.htm] - Q3 2026 price rise was only 2.5%. Compare the 21.1% rise in 2023. - Unit economics 2025: ~$39 gross profit per ton mined. ## What moves the value ```mermaid graph TD V[Value per share] --> E[EBITDA per ton] V --> T[Tons sold] V --> C[Cash use] E --> E1[Price rises vs<br/>energy and diesel] E --> E2[New kiln at 3.4 GJ] T --> T1[TxDOT, data centers,<br/>steel, Permian] T --> T2[Cleburne capacity cap] C --> C1[Returned, hoarded<br/>or spent on deals] ``` > [!question] My read > - Bull: kiln works, price rises resume, cash is returned after 2028. > - Bear: price rises have slowed to inflation, margins revert toward 40%, cash stays idle. > - ~13% of the price is cash. That softens the bear case but does not earn a return. ---- tags: #boat #investing links: [[United States Lime and Minerals MOC]] [[USLM Investment Thesis]] [[Investing Learnings]]