Uranium is the key input for nuclear reactors, which supply ~10% of global electricity and ~20% in the U.S. With decarbonization, energy security, and geopolitical shifts (e.g., U.S. ban on Russian uranium imports), demand is rising while supply remains constrained — setting the stage for an asymmetric upside.
Last updated: September 2025
See my live sheet [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qn3NVT5eC2tNxmRB4AoPhQxwQKowtCF-yN95zfG0YNU/edit?usp=sharing) Ref: [[Nuclear Fusion and Alchemy#**What I'm thinking about.**]]
[[Future in Focus - More Predictions for 2025#2. Technology of the Year: Nuclear Power]]
## Current Holdings Snapshot
| Ticker | Name | Segment | Current Price | Stop Loss | Allocation (%) |
|--------|------|---------|---------------|-----------|----------------|
| NUCG | VanEck Uranium & Nuclear Tech ETF | Integrated / Diversified Nuclear ETFs | $38.05 | $30.00 | 43.4 |
| CCJ | Cameco Corp | Tier-1 Producer | $79.17 | $63.00 | 21.8 |
| NXE | NexGen Energy | Junior Developer | $7.91 | $5.25 | 15.8 |
| CEG | Constellation Energy | Nuclear Utility | $314.34 | $250.00 | 19.0 |
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## Missing Plays & Potential Adds
| Ticker | Name | Segment | Fair Entry | Allocation (%) |
|--------|------|---------|------------|----------------|
| SRUUF | Sprott Uranium Trust | Physical Uranium | $15–16 | 10–15 |
| BWXT | BWX Technologies | SMR Infrastructure | $110–120 | 5–10 |
| OKLO | Oklo Inc. | Advanced Microreactors | $58–70 | 2–5 |
| UEC | Uranium Energy Corp | Junior / Spot Leverage | $6–6.50 | Optional 3–5 |
| DNN | Denison Mines | Junior Developer | $1.20–1.35 | Optional 2–3 |
## Strategic Rationale
### Focused Strategy
- Investing across the nuclear fuel cycle: miners, utilities, SMR tech, and physical uranium.
- Capitalizing on geopolitical realignment in uranium supply (U.S., EU reshoring).
### Innovation & Technology
- SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) expected to revolutionize deployment and scale.
- BWXT and OKLO are early leaders in this niche.
### Regulatory Alignment
- Nuclear is now classified as “green” in U.S., EU, and U.K. ESG frameworks.
- IRA and other policies fund next-gen nuclear directly.
### Market Potential
- 60+ reactors under construction globally.
- Utilities under-contracted for 2025–2035 cycle.
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## Quantitative Highlights
- Uranium Spot Price: $70/lb (Sept 2025)
- Critical Threshold: $65 — below which uranium economics start to weaken
- Cameco: Long-term contract pricing well above current spot
- SRUUF: Drives price by removing physical from spot market
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## Stop Loss Strategy
Use position-specific, volatility-adjusted stop losses (20–35%) below entry or structure.
- Core: 20–25% below entry (e.g. CCJ, CEG)
- Juniors: 30–35% (e.g. NXE, UEC)
- Speculative (OKLO): 35–40% or milestone-based
- Physical (SRUUF): No hard stop; optional trailing stop at -15%
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### Portfolio-Level Macro Stop Trigger
If uranium spot closes below $65 for 5 consecutive days, reduce exposure to speculative positions by 30–50%.
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## Scenarios for $1,000 Investment
| Scenario | Description | Value |
|----------|-------------|-------|
| Base Case | Spot holds $90–100, long-term contracts ramp | $1,900 |
| Bull Case | Spot > $150, SMRs accelerate, West restocks | $3,500–4,000 |
| Bear Case | Spot < $60, oversupply, policy backtrack | $700–800 |
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## Core Strengths (Linchpins)
1. Structural Supply Deficit
No major mines online before 2030, underinvestment persists.
2. Government-Backed Demand
Energy security and climate policies driving new nuclear support.
3. Physical Price Leverage
SRUUF and UEC accumulate and withhold uranium, tightening spot supply.