Uranium is the key input for nuclear reactors, which supply ~10% of global electricity and ~20% in the U.S. With decarbonization, energy security, and geopolitical shifts (e.g., U.S. ban on Russian uranium imports), demand is rising while supply remains constrained — setting the stage for an asymmetric upside. Last updated: September 2025 See my live sheet [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qn3NVT5eC2tNxmRB4AoPhQxwQKowtCF-yN95zfG0YNU/edit?usp=sharing) Ref: [[Nuclear Fusion and Alchemy#**What I'm thinking about.**]] [[Future in Focus - More Predictions for 2025#2. Technology of the Year: Nuclear Power]] ## Current Holdings Snapshot | Ticker | Name | Segment | Current Price | Stop Loss | Allocation (%) | |--------|------|---------|---------------|-----------|----------------| | NUCG | VanEck Uranium & Nuclear Tech ETF | Integrated / Diversified Nuclear ETFs | $38.05 | $30.00 | 43.4 | | CCJ | Cameco Corp | Tier-1 Producer | $79.17 | $63.00 | 21.8 | | NXE | NexGen Energy | Junior Developer | $7.91 | $5.25 | 15.8 | | CEG | Constellation Energy | Nuclear Utility | $314.34 | $250.00 | 19.0 | --- ## Missing Plays & Potential Adds | Ticker | Name | Segment | Fair Entry | Allocation (%) | |--------|------|---------|------------|----------------| | SRUUF | Sprott Uranium Trust | Physical Uranium | $15–16 | 10–15 | | BWXT | BWX Technologies | SMR Infrastructure | $110–120 | 5–10 | | OKLO | Oklo Inc. | Advanced Microreactors | $58–70 | 2–5 | | UEC | Uranium Energy Corp | Junior / Spot Leverage | $6–6.50 | Optional 3–5 | | DNN | Denison Mines | Junior Developer | $1.20–1.35 | Optional 2–3 | ## Strategic Rationale ### Focused Strategy - Investing across the nuclear fuel cycle: miners, utilities, SMR tech, and physical uranium. - Capitalizing on geopolitical realignment in uranium supply (U.S., EU reshoring). ### Innovation & Technology - SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) expected to revolutionize deployment and scale. - BWXT and OKLO are early leaders in this niche. ### Regulatory Alignment - Nuclear is now classified as “green” in U.S., EU, and U.K. ESG frameworks. - IRA and other policies fund next-gen nuclear directly. ### Market Potential - 60+ reactors under construction globally. - Utilities under-contracted for 2025–2035 cycle. --- ## Quantitative Highlights - Uranium Spot Price: $70/lb (Sept 2025) - Critical Threshold: $65 — below which uranium economics start to weaken - Cameco: Long-term contract pricing well above current spot - SRUUF: Drives price by removing physical from spot market --- ## Stop Loss Strategy Use position-specific, volatility-adjusted stop losses (20–35%) below entry or structure. - Core: 20–25% below entry (e.g. CCJ, CEG) - Juniors: 30–35% (e.g. NXE, UEC) - Speculative (OKLO): 35–40% or milestone-based - Physical (SRUUF): No hard stop; optional trailing stop at -15% --- ### Portfolio-Level Macro Stop Trigger If uranium spot closes below $65 for 5 consecutive days, reduce exposure to speculative positions by 30–50%. --- ## Scenarios for $1,000 Investment | Scenario | Description | Value | |----------|-------------|-------| | Base Case | Spot holds $90–100, long-term contracts ramp | $1,900 | | Bull Case | Spot > $150, SMRs accelerate, West restocks | $3,500–4,000 | | Bear Case | Spot < $60, oversupply, policy backtrack | $700–800 | --- ## Core Strengths (Linchpins) 1. Structural Supply Deficit No major mines online before 2030, underinvestment persists. 2. Government-Backed Demand Energy security and climate policies driving new nuclear support. 3. Physical Price Leverage SRUUF and UEC accumulate and withhold uranium, tightening spot supply.