# What Must Be True A discipline, not a framework. For any investment thesis, list the 3–7 conditions that **must all hold simultaneously** for the business to succeed at the proposed terms. Each condition becomes a de-risking milestone; capital should stage against them. ## Template For each condition, capture four fields: - **Condition** — a falsifiable statement about the world. - **Current evidence status** — AGAINST / INSUFFICIENT / MIXED / SUPPORTED (see [[Evidence Hierarchy]]). - **Test** — the concrete, cheap-to-run check that would move the status. - **If violated** — what the failure mode looks like, and whether the thesis survives. ## Why it is useful - Forces separation of *judgement* from *evidence*. A vague "the team will execute" becomes "the team will ship module X to paying customers by quarter Y." - Makes the thesis legible to future-you. When the deal reviews in 18 months, you can tell whether reality matched the conditions. - Decouples passing from disliking. Many passes are specific conditions not yet met, not a verdict on the company. A pass with a clear WMBT list is a *re-engageable* pass. ## Common WMBT conditions by company type For a vertical AI agent SaaS, see [[AI Agent Vertical SaaS DD MOC]] §49. For deep-tech hardware / IP, see [[Technical DD Framework]]. For services-to-platform transitions, see [[Consultancy-to-Platform Transition]]. Related: [[Evidence Hierarchy]], [[Technical DD Framework]], [[Investing/Investment Thesis Structure]] --- Tags: #dd #investing #firstprinciple #systems